EIA projects U.S. energy-related CO2 projected near current level through 2050
...if no changes to current laws and regulations and continued current trends in technology, as natural gas consumption continues to rise.
"In 2015, natural gas emissions surpassed coal emissions, and the AEO2019 Reference case projects that natural gas CO2 emissions will continue increasing as natural gas use increases. The U.S. electric power sector—now the largest consuming sector for natural gas—has added generating capacity from natural gas in recent years and has used those power plants more often. Natural gas surpassed coal to become the most prevalent fuel used to generate electricity in the United States in 2016.
Other sectors have also increased their consumption of natural gas. By the mid-2020s, EIA projects that the industrial sector will again become the largest consumer of natural gas, using natural gas as a feedstock in chemical industries, as lease and plant fuel, for industrial heat and power applications, and for liquefied natural gas production. The residential and commercial sectors are also expected to continue using more natural gas. For instance, EIA projects that natural gas furnaces and boilers will be used in 55% of U.S. homes in 2050, an increase from their 49% share in 2018.
Coal CO2 emissions in the United States are almost all from the electric power sector."
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